17551 Property Market and Risk Analysis

Warning: The information on this page is indicative. The subject outline for a particular session, location and mode of offering is the authoritative source of all information about the subject for that offering. Required texts, recommended texts and references in particular are likely to change. Students will be provided with a subject outline once they enrol in the subject.

Subject handbook information prior to 2020 is available in the Archives.

UTS: Design, Architecture and Building: School of the Built Environment
Credit points: 6 cp

Subject level:

Postgraduate

Result type: Grade and marks

Requisite(s): 12535 Development Feasibility and Modelling AND ((12518c Property Transactions AND 15142 Property Development Process AND 17700 Planning and Environmental Law) OR (15142 Property Development Process AND 15146 Sustainable Urban Development AND 17700 Planning and Environmental Law AND 15143 Group Project A: Urban Renewal))
The lower case 'c' after the subject code indicates that the subject is a corequisite. See definitions for details.
These requisites may not apply to students in certain courses.
There are course requisites for this subject. See access conditions.

Description

This capstone subject aims to provide students with a comprehensive understanding of and related skills to determine and assess critical factors involved in achieving successful outcomes for property development projects. In this subject students are expected to synthesise their understanding gained from the previous subjects within the program.

Building on a student's prior course learning in feasibility studies, planning and property development processes, this subject involves analysis of the underpinning economic factors and other dynamics when analysing specific property markets.

Using demographic, statistical and other published data, students are taught a range of skills including the application of demand and supply analysis to forecast likely demand for a project and potential price points. Property development risk analysis techniques are used to identify critical development inputs, management issues and economic variables that may create significant risks in specific projects. Risk measurement techniques including sensitivity, scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation, using a range of software applications such as Estate Master DF, Crystal Ball or @Risk software are applied to identify, measure and manage specific project risks.

Subject learning objectives (SLOs)

On successful completion of this subject, students should be able to:

1.	Understand of the structure and key determinants of property markets;
2.	Identify and understand of the key determinants of property cycles;
3.	Use some of the basic risk analysis techniques applicable to property markets and have an awareness of more advanced techniques available to the analyst.
4.	Apply a comprehensive understanding of property market drivers and key risk analysis techniques to produce and present a comprehensive project risk analysis report to common industry standards.

Course intended learning outcomes (CILOs)

This subject also contributes to the following Course Intended Learning Outcomes:

Effectively apply a variety of communication skills and technologies in professional contexts (C.1)
Develop alternative, appropriate creative solutions to built environment issues (I.1)
Apply a comprehensive understanding of property market drivers and key risk analysis techniques applicable to contemporary industry based practice (P.3)
Apply cognitive, technical and creative skills to evaluate and synthesise complex ideas and concepts in property development (R.2)

Contribution to the development of graduate attributes

The term CAPRI is used for the five Design, Architecture and Building faculty graduate attribute categories where:

C = communication and groupwork

A = attitudes and values

P = practical and professional

R = research and critique

I = innovation and creativity.

Course intended learning outcomes (CILOs) are linked to these categories using codes (e.g. C-1, A-3, P-4, etc.).

Teaching and learning strategies

The subject is delivered in block mode, via two blocks of two days and a subsequent single day for industry presentations, assessment and feedback.

A combination of online readings, video presentations and assessments are used and combine with in-class presentations, discussions, workshops and software skills training to achieve the subject objectives. Each topic has a combination of prepared content, plus activities to implement knowledge and apply skills related to developing an understanding of risk. Students will receive formative feedback in relation to the development and application of primary analysis skills. Feedback is delivered via in-class discussion and written summative feedback on all assessments.

In completing this subject students are required to undertake a development study of a real world development project and apply prior learning together with learning from this subject to produce an industry standard report and presentation concluding with a considered recommendation for approval or rejection of the project.

Students are required to undertake and interact with online presentations, undertake related pre-reading and complete an initial online assessment prior to the first day of classes for each block. Information on assessment is contained within the subject outline, posted on UTS Online.

As per the DAB generic Subject Outline, the faculty expects students to attend 80 per cent of all classes for all enrolled subjects. Furthermore, pursuant to UTS rule 3.8.2, students who do not satisfy attendance requirements may be refused permission by the responsible academic officer to be considered for assessment for this subject. Where assessment tasks are to be presented personally in class, attendance is mandatory.

NOTE:

Prior to the first block of classes you must have reviewed the material in the ‘Readings' section of the UTS Online page for this subject. In the folder marked 'Block 1' you will find readings, videos and other material that will be referred to and evaluated during the first block. It is essential that you are familiar with this material or you will not be able to participate properly in class because you won’t have the background and context of the discussions. Similarly, prior to Block 2 there will be another folder of material for you to review, and additional self-assessment exercises.

Following, within each teaching block, students will be required to complete further in class self-assessment and group activities designed to correct and/or enhance their understanding of the course materials and content.

Content (topics)

• Characteristics of Property Markets

• Determinants of Property Cycles

• Supply & Demand Analysis – Residential / Commercial

• Site Analysis & Competitive Analysis

• Probability Analysis

• Sourcing & Interpreting Economic Data

• Making Decisions about Projects

• Risk Measurement & Analysis

• Retail Property

• GIS Systems & Sourcing Demographic Data

Assessment

Assessment task 1: Property Markets & Cycles Report

Intent:

Explain and demonstrate how efficient market theory applies to property markets and demonstrates how by using primary data, we can interpret what is happening in a specific property market.

Objective(s):

This task addresses the following subject learning objectives:

1, 2 and 3

This task also addresses the following course intended learning outcomes that are linked with a code to indicate one of the five CAPRI graduate attribute categories (e.g. C.1, A.3, P.4, etc.):

C.1 and P.3

Type:

Report

Groupwork:

Individual

Weight:

35%

Criteria linkages:

Criteria	Weight (%)	SLOs	CILOs
Demonstrate synthesis of theory relevant to pre-readings and other online learning material	40	1	C.1
Evaluate and make Risk Assessment judgements in property development scenarios	40	2	P.3
Ability to communicate, knowledge, skills and ideas to transfer information concerning property market drivers and cycles in an effective and concise manner	20	3	P.3

SLOs: subject learning objectives
CILOs: course intended learning outcomes

Assessment task 2: Development Assessment Report