20504 Financial Forecasting
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particular session, location and mode of offering is the authoritative source
of all information about the subject for that offering. Required texts, recommended texts and references in particular are likely to change. Students will be provided with a subject outline once they enrol in the subject.
Subject handbook information prior to 2018 is available in the Archives.
Credit points: 6 cp
Subject level:
Undergraduate
Result type: Grade and marksRequisite(s): 25300 Fundamentals of Business Finance
There are course requisites for this subject. See access conditions.
Description
The subject allows students to develop an understanding of the issues involved when forecasting in an uncertain world. Students apply statistical methods to identify an appropriate forecasting model and then develop and evaluate the forecasts for use in a typical financial analysis problem.
Subject learning objectives (SLOs)
| 1. | Analyse and discuss a variety of forecasting models |
|---|---|
| 2. | Describe the uncertainty in the forecasting process |
| 3. | Explain and demonstrate the use of various statistical forecasting models |
Contribution to the development of graduate attributes
The subject allows students to develop an understanding of the issues involved when forecasting in an uncertain world. Students apply statistical methods to identify an appropriate forecasting model and then develop and evaluate the forecasts for use in a typical financial analysis problem.
Teaching and learning strategies
The subject will be taught using a combination of large lectures and smaller tutorials. The lectures provide the structure of the topic area, discussion of the theory and practical examples. Tutorials provide an opportunity to discuss ideas and issues and evaluate practical application of the theory, as well as encouraging students to think in a creative manner to solve real world problems. Use is made of the UTS web-based communication tool UTSOnline, which will be used to share information, provide feedback and encourage interaction between staff and students.
Content (topics)
- Introduction to the financial modelling process
- Introduction to statistics and statistical inference
- Forecasting with time-series data
- Comparing forecasting models
- Decomposition and smoothing methods
- Regression analysis
- Modelling uncertainty
Assessment
Assessment task 1: Case Study (Group)
| Objective(s): | This addresses subject learning objective(s): 2 and 3 |
|---|---|
| Weight: | 30% |
Assessment task 2: Final Exam (Individual)
| Objective(s): | This addresses subject learning objective(s): 1, 2 and 3 |
|---|---|
| Weight: | 70% |
Minimum requirements
Students must achieve at least 50% of the subject’s total marks.
Recommended texts
Hank J.E. and Wichern D. W., 2013, Business Forecasting, New International Edition, 9th Ed., Pearson
