49001 Judgment and Decision Making

Warning: The information on this page is indicative. The subject outline for a particular semester, location and mode of offering is the authoritative source of all information about the subject for that offering. Required texts, recommended texts and references in particular are likely to change. Students will be provided with a subject outline once they enrol in the subject.

Subject level:

Postgraduate

Handbook description

This subject develops understanding of rational decision aids in light of modern descriptive theories of judgment, choice and decision in organisations. The methods of management science, decision analysis and judgment analysis are presented, and models of individual, group and strategic decision-making are critically assessed.

Drawing on the insights of psychology, sociology and management science, this subject aims to inform you about the many facets of good judgment associated with decision-making.

Subject objectives/outcomes

On completion of this subject the student will be able to understand:

1. How management behaviour and the structure of organisations effects the way decisions are made and their nature
2. The particular difficulties engineers experience when faced with managerial decision-making
3. How management science has contributed towards our understanding of rational, mathematical decision aids
4. The dichotomies of decision-making in the presence of hazards
5. The psychology of judgment and the nature of individual decision-making
6. The advantages and drawbacks of group decision-making; how to manage individual and group decisions
7. What is known about the sociology of strategic decisions

Contribution to course aims and graduate attributes

The art of organising is punctuated by episodes of judgment and choice when decisions as to the next action or plan are formulated. These decisions are often natural responses to problems or opportunities but may represent critical departures from routine. They form the turning points in the history of the organisation and indicate a way through the many alternative futures. The often distinctive, retraceable, nature of decisions is one of the few characteristics of organising that can be easily associated with a person or a group. Hence, careers may be made by a good decision and destroyed if blame is readily attributed when the outcome is poor. However unfair it may be, good or bad results may be traced back to one or more critical decisions and hence one or more decision makers. But good decision-making is poorly understood and often mistakenly attributed to cool rationality or, perhaps, to superior insight into the future. Rarely is either of these explanations true. It is, however, possible to detect in good decision making a pattern of judgment that is informed by a combination of logic and intuition, of calculation and experience. Drawing on the insights of psychology, sociology and management science, it is the ambition of this subject to inform the student about the many facets of this good judgment. (In the view of the subject coordinator judgment is the key to personal, organizational and social survival).

A substantive focus of this subject is to teach particular aspects of knowledge that are essential for engineers and managers employed in technical related industries or in consultancies that service or collaborate with these industries. All subject objectives (1 through to 7) are closely linked with the student successfully undertaking engagement with a range of management aspects that are associated with or influence decision making and considering them through the dual lenses of the technology and the social sciences.

It is key that managerial knowledge is recognized as more than just facts, although facts can at times be critically important. It includes discipline values and norms, portfolios of policies, methodologies, plans and strategies. It requires the understanding of and the connection and synthesis of information. Obtaining expertise requires elaborative rehearsal; please note the comments under “Teaching and Learning Strategies”

Each of our life experiences makes subtle contributions to our values, qualities and skills – our attributes. The subject has been designed to assist in the development of a number of the Faculty’s graduate attributes (refer http://feit.uts.edu.au/faculty/graduate-attributes.html) with the most deliberate purpose being through Assessment items 1, 2 and 3 but the subjects contribution to attributes is not limited to those noted below.

Assessment item 1

The Abstract assignment requires the student to develop a deep understanding of five journal papers or portions of key books written by acknowledged experts in the field of decision making. A component of the assignment requires the student to place the ideas and knowledge acquired into real life scenarios with an industry work place or personal context. The activity mirrors a frequently required aspect of managerial activity as well as the basic process of personal academic development. In this way it reinforces the skills/techniques of independent self-learning and self-management (D2 Lifelong learning).

Many managers and perhaps most who have a technical background have a tendency to think in deterministic terms. One might contemplate that this results from the strong reliance on design and production standards and codes to minimise risk or in some circumstances simply wishful thinking. A specific aspect that pervades most of the decision literature, although often quite subtly, is that the world in general and human behavior in particular is probabilistic. The assignment makes obvious that technical professional in management positions should be prepared to often lay aside their calculator and computer and look to human relations for inspiration. (A3 Constraints, uncertainties and risk, A5 Apply systems thinking).

The assignment structure requires the student response to each article to tightly focus on clearly expressing the ideas and messages that have the highest value or priority. (E1 Communicate effectively)

Assessment item 2

The Group talk assignment requires the student to participate/collaborate within a team. The team must research a specific narrow aspect of interest that is beyond the knowledge available within the subject resource material. However, the aspect must be associated with one of the subject topics. The team must report both in writing and orally in conjunction with visual aids (B6 Research Skills; E1 Communicate effectively).

A considered investigation of even a narrow aspect within the decision literature invariable makes obvious the complexity of often conflicting influences that are at play: rational, organization, political and those associated with human nature. Some judgment is required to develop a reasoned understanding of the chosen aspect and a capacity to report succinctly on the issue. (A3 Constraints, uncertainties and risk, A5 Apply systems thinking)

Successful completion of the assignment requires students to develop a functioning team from a disparate group and involves them in both team building and team dynamics and one could reasonably anticipate further develops their understanding of the variability of human nature.

Assessment item 3

The Lecture Reading Material Exercises assignment is only undertaken by Distance mode students in lieu of Assessment item 2.

The assignment requires the in-depth study of further articles and therefore builds on the attribute development associated with Assessment item 1. However the more important thrust of the assignment is the requirement that the student demonstrate an ability to apply decision making discipline specific skills and knowledge to real life work place scenarios. (A3 Constraints, uncertainties and risk, A5 Apply systems thinking, D2 Lifelong learning, E1 Communicate effectively; refer to Assessment item 1 for further discussion)

Assessment item 4 and Assessment item 5

The many UTSOnline tests and the final exam focus on all subject objectives. These assessment items encourage a progressive detailed engagement with significant components of the decision making body of knowledge.

The content of the subject is often complex and difficult, the subject has an expectation that the student spends a reasonable amount of their own time attempting to internalise the information. This is potentially a good learning experience.

Although often demanding the content provides a well rounded framework that encourages a holistic approach to decision making that blends technical skill, logical reasoning, judgment and managing activities and people.

Teaching and learning strategies

The subject is offered in a number of different modes. The learning objectives and content are the same for all modes. There are however some differences in emphasis and in assignment work as a result of specific constraints presented by the various modes. The subject outline for the specific semester of study being undertaken must be read in conjunction with the subject Instructions. The subject Instructions will be posted on UTSOnline. The Instructions provide additional information and advice on many facets of the subject content, its administration and the student’s obligations. It is mandatory that students obtain, read and comply with the requirements of both the subject outline and subject Instructions.

Subject announcements will be made using UTSOnline. Students are expected to regularly check the announcements page for information.

Whilst your study approach is a personal choice, do keep in mind that this subject is not one that can be mastered by some cursory reading prior to the due dates for assignments and reviewing the material a few weeks prior to the final exam.

An important part of the subject design is aimed at providing opportunity for students to develop their reasoning skills as well as their independent learning capacity.

A willingness to take personal responsibility is a key element of successful learning. It is estimated that you should set aside a minimum total of approximately 9 hours of study time per week (inclusive of any face to face contact) throughout the semester. This is a rough guide only as people learn at different rates and will approach the subject from different backgrounds and levels of experience and have different ambitions and expectations in regard to outcomes.

To maximise your learning from this subject you should work consistently and progressively throughout the semester. The best way to achieve this is to plan your study time at the beginning of the semester and make sure you adhere to the planned schedule. In developing a study schedule please note that you will find that the information load in each topic is not identical, for example “The Management Setting” exceeds that of the others by a factor of about two and may need proportionally greater effort and time. Also be aware of the assignment due dates as they set time limits for achieving necessary competence in some aspects of the material. Leaving assignments to the last minute is a common problem for most students.

Assessment item 1 aims at encouraging you to immediately commence study and to use the text and the Reading Material in a thoughtful and productive manner.

The subject is literature based. The lecture approach is very academic in the traditional sense, information is drawn from the body of knowledge and some synthesis is attempted. A degree of practicality is introduced through anecdotes, which lightens the experience for the student and assists them make connections to an industry framework.

The lectures sessions and available subject resources (refer Required texts and Other resources) focus on students undertaking conscientious engagement with significant components of a body of knowledge. It is important to understand the difference between rote learning and the development of expertise. Rote learning merely helps you retain material in your Short Term Memory. ‘Elaborative rehearsal’ which places the material into your Long Term Memory is crucial for the development of professional expertise. Elaborative rehearsal requires you to pay attention to the meaning of the material (understanding) and, in the process, try to relate items with each other and with the structure of the facts and evidence. Elaborative rehearsal will place the material into ‘schemata’, or structures in your cognition that relate one item to another, rather than into groups of disjointed facts. This is the underlying basis of expertise and will enhance better application of domain knowledge in stressful situations and easy retrieval during the exam (Assessment item 5).

The UTSOnline tests (Assessment item 4) will aid elaborative rehearsal.

Content

The list below sets out the seven basic topics of the subject and the appropriate chapters in the textbook and the Reading Material and Exercises book (RME):

• The Management Setting; chapters 1, 2 and 3; RME section 1
• Decision Analysis; chapter 4; RME section 2
• Multi-attribute Decisions; chapter 5; RME section 3
• Engineering and Social Risk; chapter 6; RME section 4
• Cognitive Processes; chapter 7; RME section 5
• Individual and Group Decisions; chapters 8 and 9; RME sections 6 and 7
• Strategic Decisions; chapters 10, 11 and 12; RME section 8

Assessment

Assessment Item 1: Abstract assignment

Assessment Item 2: Group talk assignment (Standard mode students only)

Assessment Item 3: Lecture Reading Material Exercises (Distance mode students only)

Assessment Item 4: UTSOnline Web-based Tests

Assessment Item 5: Formal Examination

Minimum requirements

A pass in the subject is achieved by gaining a total of 50 marks and at least 40 per cent of the total marks available in the final examination.

Required texts

Parkin, J.V. (1996) Management Decisions for Engineers, Thomas Telford, London.

Other resources

The subject is supported by UTSOnline http://online.uts.edu.au/webapps/login/

Subject instructions posted on UTSonline.

"Turnitin" electronic assignment submission and plagarism detection system www.turnitin.com

Students enrolled in the subject can purchase, at cost, a copy of the subject Reading Material and Exercises (RME) and the subject Lecture Support Notes (LSN) at the UTS Union Shop. Electronic versions of both can be downloaded from UTSOnline.